Whatever Doesn’t Kill You Will Make You Stronger – Perspective on the State of Medicare Advantage

Summary

Pending reimbursement cuts, a narrowing selling period, and a more onerous business environment all contributed to the conventional wisdom that enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA) would decline. The Congressional Budget Office, owing to a tendency of seniors to leave their plan when their premiums rise, projected that the number of MA members by the end of this decade would fall to nine million from 11 million today. This absolute decline would happen even in light of the wave of Baby Boomers reaching eligibility.

But L.E.K. Consulting has a contrarian perspective. L.E.K. research shows that there are clear growth opportunities for many insurers that offer Medicare Advantage plans – a position that challenges widely held assumptions about this market. L.E.K.’s new report outlines reasons for market growth, and includes:

• The market dynamics that are supporting projected growth in this market
• Findings from a county-by-county analysis of how pending rate cuts in Medicare Advantage may impact payers in these areas
• Projections for how healthcare reform will reshape the Medicare Advantage market