Predictable Winners by L.E.K. Consulting partners Stuart Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg provides a comprehensive, step-by-step playbook for innovation and product development

BOSTON (February 11, 2025) – Growth has long been one of the biggest challenges for companies of all types and sizes. Innovation is hard; studies show that of the thousands of new products launched every year, between 70 and 90% of them fail.

Surprisingly, though, it’s not for lack of ideas. Rather, the process of transforming those ideas into products and successfully taking them to market is where most organizations stumble.

In their forthcoming book, Predictable Winners: A Handbook for Developing, Forecasting and Launching New Products and Services (Stanford University Press, 2025), authors Stuart Jackson and Ilya Trakhtenberg, both partners at the global strategy consultancy L.E.K. Consulting, contend that taking a systematic approach to the entire innovation journey is the path for consistent success.

Drawing from their decades of combined experience helping clients bring thousands of new products to market, the book presents a comprehensive, step-by-step innovation playbook that will resonate with leaders across a wide range of industries including life sciences, technology, software and consumer goods. Their recommended process includes:

  • Carefully identifying the best ideas no matter the source, 
  • Using data to identify and manage risk at every stage of the product development process,
  • Quickly securing detailed customer feedback (to make sure losing ideas fail fast),
  • Measuring innovation investments the way venture investors do, and 
  • All the while taking a long view aimed at extending the lifespan of the innovation to generate lasting returns.

“Innovation and product development need to be more than a roll of the dice but, unfortunately, that’s where most companies are at,” Jackson says. “It doesn’t have to be that way. By taking a systematic approach, companies can stop gambling with their resources and dramatically increase their odds of success.”

Specifically, Jackson and Trakhtenberg write that leaders can improve those odds by evaluating many indicators of success, rather than just one or two. Among their recommendations:

  • Don’t fixate on a single approach to assessing the new product’s potential. Leverage multiple sources of information.
  • Know your organization’s strengths and prejudices. You might have a strong market insights group or a world-class rapid prototyping team. But don’t ignore other information sources.
  • Gather market feedback early — and pay attention to actual customer behavior, not stated intentions.
  • Plan for “fast fail” and other lean approaches — so costs and timelines don’t grow out of control.
  • Constantly re-evaluate and re-prioritize — these are not things you do just once.
  • Delay big spending while creating room to experiment and learn. 
  • Make sure those experiments lead to new actionable insights.

The book’s release comes at an opportune time. Businesses — especially those outside of Silicon Valley – are struggling mightily to innovate. Between 2013 and 2019, the so-called “Magnificent Seven” S&P 500 companies — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — delivered a strong 19% compounded return. The other 493 companies, though, delivered only 2%.

And at the same time, a variety of paradigm shifts and protracted macroeconomic challenges — interest rates, demographic headwinds, and fast-evolving consumer preferences, to name just a few — have only compounded the growth challenges.

“It’s never been more difficult to bring new products and services to market,” Trakhtenberg says. “Competition is fierce, and customers are increasingly discerning. Unlocking the power of data can of course be hugely instructive, but it can also confuse decision making. That said, there are scores of companies that can break through and innovate in the way the Magnificent Seven have. But that won’t happen by accident. It requires a methodical approach to each step of the innovation process.”

The book, which debuts in March, also features in-depth conversations with top innovators as well as detailed case studies and insights from both emerging start-ups and established giants like Google, P&G, Tesla and Disney.

About the Authors:
Stuart Jackson led L.E.K. Consulting as Global Managing Partner and now serves as Vice Chair. He has worked with hundreds of clients who have enjoyed higher growth, increased their profit margins in existing businesses, added scores of new services and products, and completed more than 100 merger and acquisition transactions. He is a past recipient of Consulting Magazine’s Top 25 Consultants award. He is the author of the highly acclaimed book Where Value Hides: A New Way to Uncover Profitable Growth for Your Business (Wiley, 2006) and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The Journal of Business Strategy and Harvard Business Review.  

Ilya Trakhtenberg is a Managing Director with L.E.K. Consulting and a leading partner in its healthcare practice. In his 15 years with L.E.K., he has led hundreds of engagements with a wide range of corporate and private equity clients to develop and launch innovative new products, accelerate business growth, and deliver superior investment returns. He has published more than a dozen journal articles, serves as a regular speaker at industry conferences, and founded L.E.K.’s MedTech Launch Center of Excellence. Ilya is also a past recipient of M&A Advisor’s Emerging Leaders Award and a board member of L.E.K.’s global Sustainability Centre of Excellence.

About L.E.K. Consulting:
We’re L.E.K. Consulting, a global strategy consultancy working with business leaders to seize competitive advantage and amplify growth. Our insights are catalysts that reshape the trajectory of our clients’ businesses, uncovering opportunities and empowering them to master their moments of truth. Since 1983, our worldwide practice — spanning the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Asia-Pacific — has guided leaders across all industries, from global corporations to emerging entrepreneurial businesses and private equity investors. Looking for more? Visit www.lek.com.